Five breakout strategies. One confirmation.
Each strategy trades a different kind of higher-timeframe level. All five use the same breakout-and-confirmation rule, the same session and the same risk.
H4 Gap Breakout
A fair value gap is a three-candle imbalance: price moved so fast that one candle left a gap the market never traded through. On the 4-hour chart these gaps act as walls.
When price returns to an H4 gap and closes straight through its far edge, the wall has failed. Mercury waits one more 15-minute candle to confirm the break holds, then enters with a stop one ATR away and a 3R target.
Daily Swing Breakout
A daily swing high or low is a turning point that stood for five days on each side. Stops and pending orders cluster around these levels.
A decisive 15-minute close through a daily swing — confirmed by the next candle — signals that the orders resting there have been absorbed. The stop sits on the other side of the level; the target is 3R.
Value Area Breakout
Yesterday’s volume profile marks where most business was done: the point of control (POC) and the edges of the value area (VAH / VAL). Price either accepts these levels or leaves them fast.
When price breaks through one of yesterday’s value levels and the next 1-minute candle holds beyond it, Mercury enters immediately, stops on the far side of the level and targets 4R.
Naked POC Breakout
A naked POC is a daily point of control that price has not returned to since. Untested levels attract price — and when price breaks through them, the move is often fast.
Mercury watches every untested daily POC of the last 20 days. A 1-minute breakout through it, confirmed by the next candle, triggers a trade with a one-ATR stop and a 3R target.
H4 Swing Breakout
The 4-hour swing points that matter are the ones separated by real moves — at least three ATRs. They mark where the last leg started or ended.
A 15-minute close through such a swing, held by the next candle, starts a trade with a one-ATR stop and a 3R target.
Hypothetical results from a backtest — simulated trades on historical prices with raw-spread costs (0.1 pip spread and $3.50 commission per side; index futures equivalent), not actual trading. The rules were built on 2012–2019 prices and checked on later years, but the results shown include the years they were built on, so live results are likely to be lower; your broker’s spreads, slippage and execution can differ. Past or simulated performance does not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged products can lose more than you expect.